Saturday, January 29, 2011

“Happiness” – Richard Layard

Though our average happiness may be influenced by the pattern of our activities, it is mainly affected by our temperament and attitudes and by the key features of our life situation – our relationships, our health, our worries about money.

When different people are exposed to good experiences (like pleasant film clips), those who are naturally happy at rest experience the greatest gain in happiness. And when they are exposed to nasty experiences, they experience the least increase in discomfort.

Happiness Improves Your Health

In September 1932 the mother superior of the American School Sisters of Notre Dame decided that all new nuns should be asked to write an autobiographical sketch. These sketches were kept, and they have recently been independently rated by psychologists to show the amount of positive feeling which they revealed. These ratings have then been compared with how long each nun lived. Remarkably, the amount of positive feeling that a nun revealed in her twenties was an excellent predictor of how long she would live.

… However we measure happiness, it appears to be conducive to physical health (other things being equal). Happy people tend to have more robust immune systems and lower levels of stress causing cortisol. If artificially exposed to the flu virus, they are less likely to contract the disease. They are also more likely to recover from a major surgery.

Equally, when a person has a happy experience, the body chemistry improves, and blood pressure and heart rate tend to fall. Especially good experiences can have long-lasting effects on our health. If we take the 750 actors and actresses who were nominated for the Oscars, we can assume that before the decision the winners and losers were equally healthy on average. Yet those who got the Oscars went on to live four years longer, on average, than the losers. Such was the gain in morale from winning.

If we compare Western countries, the richer ones are no happier than the poorer ones. … we can see that for countries with above $20,000 a head, additional income is not associated with extra happiness.

For poorer countries, things are different, because people are nearer the breadline. … This corresponds to one of the key beliefs of the nineteenth century economists – that the extra happiness provided by extra income is greatest when you are poor, and declines steadily as you get richer.

If people change their reference group upwards, this can seriously affect their happiness. There are many cases where people became objectively better off but felt subjectively worse. One is East Germany, where the living standards of those employed soared after 1990, but their level of happiness fell: with the reunification of Germany the East Germans began to compare themselves with the West Germans, rather than with the other countries in the former Soviet bloc.

… most people are not rivalrous about their leisure. But they are rivalrous about income, and that rivalry is self-defeating. There is thus a tendency to sacrifice too much leisure in order to increase income.

If we do not foresee that we get used to our material possessions, we shall overinvest in acquiring them, at the expense of our leisure. People do underestimate this process of habituation. As a result, our life can get distorted toward working and making money, and away from other pursuits.

… if money is transferred from a richer person to a poorer person, the poor person gains more happiness than the rich person loses. So average happiness increases. Thus a country will have a higher level of average happiness the more equally its income is distributed – all else being equal.

…how do we know that genes affect our happiness? The key evidence comes from the study of twins. Twins that are identical have identical genes, while twins that aren’t identical have only half their genes in common, just like ordinary siblings. As a result, identical twins are much more similar in happiness than twins that are not identical. The findings from the Minnesota Twins Registry are striking. Identical twins are remarkably close to each other in happiness, while non-identical twins are barely similar at all.

What doesn’t matter

We can begin with five features that on average have a negligible effect on happiness. The first is age: if we trace people through their life, average happiness is remarkably stable, despite the ups and downs of income and despite increasing ill-health. The second is gender: in nearly every country men and women are equally happy. Looks too make little difference. Likewise, IQ is only weakly correlated with happiness, as are physical and mental energy (self-rated). Finally, education has only a small direct effect on happiness, though of course is raises happiness by raising a person’s income.

The ‘Big Seven’

The first five are given in order of importance:

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Family relationships

Financial situation

Work

Community and friends

Health

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Personal freedom

Personal values

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Differences in family situation cause a huge difference in happiness. If someone is divorced, that person’s happiness falls by 5 points. This is more than double the effect of losing a third of one’s income. And if someone is separated (reflecting a more recent break-up of the relationship), things are even worse. Widowhood too is a major blow.

… we find that people generally become happier as a result of marriage, and this is true of both men and women. In the two or three years before marriage they are already becoming happier (some are already living together), but the year of marriage is the peak of happiness. After that first year, some habituation sets in, and people become a bit less happy. But they remain happier than they were four years before the marriage.

The pattern for divorce is similar but in reverse. Before the divorce, people are becoming ever less happy. The year of divorce is the worst. After that year men return on average to their baseline happiness, but women continue to suffer.

What about the effects of having children? There is indeed great rejoicing when children are born. Yet within two years parents revert on average to their original level of happiness.

When people become unemployed their happiness falls much less because of the loss of income than because of the loss of work itself.

Healthy members of the public generally overestimate the loss of happiness that people actually experience from many of the main medical conditions. But people can never adapt to chronic pain or to mental illness – feelings that come from inside themselves, rather than limitations on their external activities. The control of such suffering must be one of our top priorities.

If our goals are too low, we get bored. But if they are too high, we get frustrated. The secret is to have goals that are stretching enough, but not too stretching. Unattainable goals are a well-known cause of depression. But so too is boredom.

In the 1970s the economist Tibor Scitovsky wrote a book called The Joyless Economy in which he tried to explain why so many people were unhappy, even though they had plenty of money. His explanation was boredom. They had chosen comfort instead of stimulation. They had failed to find active interests that would engage them outside their work.

His diagnosis has an important element of truth. Even though many people feel under tremendous pressure, the average American or Briton still find three and a half hours a day to watch television. People no longer have to struggle to keep alive, as they have done for most of human history. So we have more choice over our goals. Getting them right is the problem.

In the same vein the great economist Lord Keynes wrote, ‘To those who sweat for their daily bread, leisure is a longed-for sweet until they get it.’

In 1999 (in Bhutan), the ban on TV was lifted, and licenses were given to more than thirty cable operators. … And so the Bhutanese could see the usual mix of football, violence, sexual betrayal, consumer advertising, wrestling and the like. They lapped it up, but the impact on their society provides a remarkable natural experiment in how technological change can affect attitudes and behaviour.

Quite soon everyone noticed a sharp increase in family break up, crime and dug taking. In schools violence in the playground increased… One could be cautious in generalising from only one episode. But this striking tale reinforces the commonsense view that TV is a major independent force in our lives and not simply a reflection of what we already are.

Social life

The typical Britain watches television for three and a half hours a day – roughly twenty-five hours a week. Over a lifetime a typical Briton spends more time watching television than doing paid work. The figures are much the same in the United States. In most European countries viewing rates are somewhat lower but generally above two hours a day. They are not figures for how long the set is switched on; they are what individual viewers say about their own viewing.

This viewing time has to come from somewhere, and it mainly comes from social life. In 1973 there were still communities in Canada that had no TV. So an enterprising research group monitored what happened when TV was introduced into a particular town. As you would expect, social life was reduced, especially for older people. And people stopped playing so much sport. Because television is so passive, it also reduced the measured creativity of people, both young and old.

Originally, television provided a common focus for the family, when there was only one set. They the children got their own sets, which hastened the demise of the family evening meal. As Robert Putnam argues, television must be one of the reasons for the decline of community life in the United States.

We should not go back to a world without television, but we can surely use our television better than we do now.

… the idea of the Noble Savage is a myth. Likewise the idea of a peaceful Merrie England in the Middle Ages. Seven hundred years ago the homicide rate in England was twenty times higher than it is now.

If monkeys enjoy status, so do human beings. We want status not only for what else it makes possible, but also for itself. We hate falling short of others, and we like to excel. We want to entertain other people as we want other people to entertain us, and we want our children to have the things their friends have. These are not ignoble sentiments of envy; the desire for status is basic to our human nature.

You can see how important it is by looking at its effect on physical health. When monkeys are put in different groups so that their rank changes, their coronary arteries clog up more slowly the higher their rank. Similarly among British civil servants, those of higher rank secrete lower average levels of stress-related cortisol – one reason why they live longer. In fact, people in the higher grades live on average four and a half years longer than those in the lower grades. In case you wondered, very little of this difference is due to differences in lifestyle – smoking, drinking, diet, exercise or kinds of housing. Likewise, as we have seen, Oscar winners on average live four years longer than Oscar nominees who lose.

So the desire for status is utterly natural. But it creates a massive problem if we want to make people happier, for the total amount of status is fixed. Putting it crudely, status is like the outcome of a race. … If my score improves, someone else’s deteriorates. My gain is his loss. In the jargon, we are engaged in a zero-sum game…

…the Buddhist concept of mindfulness has a message for all of us. It says: cultivate the sense of awe and wonder; savour the things of today; and look about you with the same interest as if you were watching a movie or taking a photo. Engage with the world and with the people around you.

…unfortunately, some people believe we are as we are, and no mental practices can change us. So how do these people account for the placebo effect? All doctors know that a dummy pill, with nothing in it, will cure a substantial proportion of their patients. Yet, if there is nothing in the pill, what is curing them? Their beliefs are curing them. They improve because they believe they can. If beliefs can cure our body, they can surely help our spirit.

“Jubal Sackett” – Louis L’Amour

A cold wind blew off Hanging Dog Mountain and I had no fire, nor dared I strike so much as a spark that might betray my hiding place. Somewhere near, an enemy lurked, waiting.

Here there is land for all, and no man need work for another.

‘There is but one thing we know, Ni’kwana, and that is that nothing forever remains the same. Always there is change. Your people have remained long undisturbed by outside influences. This may seem good, but it can be bad also, for growth comes from change. A people grows or it dies.’

…it had been the way of the world for men, animals and plants to move where there is opportunity and where they can survive.

‘The Kickapoo are strong because of our enemies. Deny us our enemies and we would grow weak.’

Uninformed he might be, but unintelligent he was not … (Jubal Sackett on his companion Koekotah)

‘The Natchee will not change.’

For a long moment, I hesitated and then I said, ‘I fear there will be no future for those who do not change. When there are no new ideas things can remain the same, but strangers are coming with different ways – ‘

‘There are strangers in our villages. There has been no change.’

‘I noticed one of your men with a steel knife, a white man’s knife. That is a change. I saw one of your women sewing with a steel needle. That is a change. Do not others want such knives and needles?’

‘We do not need them.’

‘Need and desire have no connection,’ I said. ‘Many people desire things they do not need. Happiness can be measured by what one does not need, but often to see is to want.’

I am here. Why? Because I wanted to see, to know, to understand. I wanted to go beyond the plains. I want even to go beyond the mountains where we now are. I think I am in this world to find beauty in lonely places. At least, that is what I wish to think.

All things are valued according to their scarcity, and a time might come when this gift would seem as nothing. What was worth little to us was worth much to them because they were things they could not get elsewhere.

“Summer in Algiers” - Albert Camus

Men find here throughout all their youth a way of living commensurate with their beauty. After that, decay and oblivion. They’ve staked all on the body and they know they must lose. In Algiers, for those who are young and alive, everything is their haven and an occasion for excelling - the bay, the sun, the red and white checkerboard of terraces going down to the sea, the flowers and stadiums, the fresh brown bodies … But for those whose youth is past no place exists, no sanctuary to absorb their melancholy.

The notion of hell, for instance, is here no more than a silly joke. Such imagining are only for the very virtuous. And I am convinced that the word virtue is entirely meaningless throughout Algeria. Not that its men are without principles. They have their moral code. We don’t ‘chuck’ our mothers, we make out wife respected in the street, we are considerate to the pregnant, we don’t attack an enemy two against one, because ‘it’s cheap’.

“Don Quixote” – Miguel De Cervantes

In short, our gentleman became so caught up in reading that he spent his nights reading from dusk til dawn and his days reading from sunrise to sunset, and so with too little sleep and too much reading his brains had dried up, causing him to lose his mind. His fantasy filled with everything he had read in his books, enchantments as well as combats, battles, challenges, and he became so convinced in his imagination of the truth of all the countless grandiloquent and false inventions he read that for him no history in the world was truer.

The truth is that when his mind was completely gone, he had the strangest thought any lunatic in the world ever had, which was that it seemed reasonable and necessary to him, both for the sake of his honour and as a service to the nation, to become a knight errant and travel the world with his armour and his horse to seek adventures and engage in everything he had read that knights engaged in, righting all manner of wrongs and, by seizing the opportunity and placing himself in danger and ending those wrongs, winning eternal renown and everlasting fame.

From Chapter XXXIII : Which recounts the novel of The Man Who Was Recklessly Curious.

Lotario to Anselmo: ‘… the desire that plagues me is my wondering of Camila, my wife, is as good and perfect as I think she is, and I cannot learn the truth except by testing her so that the test reveal the worth of her virtue, as fire shows the worth of gold. Because it seems to me, dear friend, that a woman is not virtuous if she is not solicited, and that she alone is strong who does not bend to promises, gifts, tears, and the constant importunities of lovers who woo her. Why be grateful when a woman is good’ he said, ‘if no one urges her to be bad? … In short, I do not hold the woman who is virtuous because of fear or lack of opportunity in the same esteem as the one who is courted and pursued and emerges wearing the victor’s crown. For these reasons, and many others I could mention that support and strengthen this opinion, my desire is for Camila, my wife, to pass through these difficulties, and be refined and prove her value in the fire of being wooed and courted by one worthy of desiring her; and if she emerges, as I believe she will, triumphant from this battle, I shall deem my good fortune unparalleled …’

Anselmo to Lotario: ‘ And if you believe she will emerge victorious from all my assaults, as she undoubtedly will, what designations do you plan to give her afterward that are better than the ones she has now? What will she be afterward that is better than what she is now? Either your opinion of her is not what you say it is, or you do not know what you are asking. … if she is virtuous as you believe, it would be reckless to experiment with that truth, for when you have done so, it will still have the same value it had before. Therefore we must conclude that attempting actions more likely to harm us than to benefit us is characteristic of rash minds bereft of reason, especially when they are forced or compelled to undertake them, and when even from a distance it is obvious that the venture is an act of patent madness.’

‘Tell me, Anselmo; if heaven, or good luck, had made you the possessor and legitimate owner of a fine diamond whose worth and value satisfied every jeweller who ever saw it, and all of them were of the opinion and said in one voice that in value, size and purity it was all that such a stone could be, and you believed this as well, having no knowledge to the contrary, would it be reasonable for you to take that diamond, and by dint of powerful blows test if it was as hard and as fine as they said? Moreover, in the event you did this, and the stone withstood so foolish a test, it would not, for that reason gain in value or fame, but if it shattered, which is possible, wouldn’t everything be lost? Yes, certainly, and its owner would be thought a fool by everyone.’

Don Quixote: ‘… nothing I eat will taste good until I learn everything.’

Don Quixote: ‘Well, the same thing happens in the drama and business of this world, where some play emperors, others pontiffs, in short, all the figures that can be presented in a play, but at the end, which is when life is over, death removes the clothing that differentiated them, and all are equal in the grave.’

The Knight of the Wood to Don Quixote: ‘Who is it? Who are you? Do you count yourself among the contented or the afflicted?’

‘The afflicted,’ responded Don Quixote.

‘Then approach,’ responded the Knight of the Wood, ‘and you shall realise that you are approaching sorrow and affliction personified.’

Pane lucrando – the phrase means ‘in order to earn one’s bread’

To which the duchess responded:

‘That our good friend Sancho is comical is something I esteem greatly, because it is a sign of his cleverness; for wit and humour, Senor Don Quixote, as your grace well knows, do not reside in slow minds …’

Don Quixote giving advice to Sancho Panza before he embarks on his governorship of the insula:

‘Eat sparingly at midday and even less for supper, for the health of the entire body is forged in the workshop of the stomach.’

Sancho Panza to his donkey:

‘Come here, my companion and friend, comrade in all my sufferings and woes: when I spent time with you and had no other thoughts but mending your harness and feeding your body, then my hours, my days, and my years were happy, but after I left you and climbed the towers of ambition and pride, a thousand miseries, a thousand troubles and four thousand worries have entered my deep soul.’

Sancho Panza to Don Quixote:

‘I’ve heard that the woman they call Fortune is drunken, fickle, and most of all blind, so she doesn’t see what she’s doing and doesn’t know who she’s throwing down or raising up.’

Sancho Panza on giving up the governorship:

‘My lord and lady, because it was the wish of your highnesses, and not because of any merit in me, I went to govern the insula of Barataria, which I entered naked, and I’m naked now; I haven’t lost of gained a thing. As to whether I governed well or badly, I’ve witnessed before me, and they’ll say whatever they want. I decided to questions and settled cases, always dying of hunger, for such was the desire of Dr.Pedro Recio, a native of Tirteafuera and a governoresque and insulano doctor. Enemies attacked us by night, placing in us great difficulties, and the people of the insula say we emerged free and victorious because of the valor of my arm, and if they’re telling the truth, may God keep them safe. In short, in this time I’ve weighed the burdens and obligations that come with governing, and I’ve found, by my own reckoning, that my shoulders couldn’t carry them; they’re not the right load for my ribs, and not the right arrows for my quiver, and so, before the governorship could do away with me, I decided to do away with the governorship, and yesterday morning I left the insula just as I found it …’

“How to Win Friends and Influence People” – Dale Carnegie

I once spent almost two years writing a book on public speaking and yet I found I kept going over it from time to time in order to remember what I had written in my own book. The rapidity with which we forget is astonishing.

So, if you want to get a real, lasting benefit out of this book, don’t imagine that skimming through it once will suffice. After reading it thoroughly, you ought to spend a few hours reviewing it each month.

Learning is an active process. We learn by doing. So, if you desire to master the principles you are studying in this book, do something about them. Apply these rules at every opportunity. If you don’t you will forget them quickly. Only knowledge that is used sticks in your mind.

William James said: ‘The deepest principle in human nature is the craving to be appreciated.’

Our millionaires helped finance Admiral Byrd’s expedition to the Antarctic in 1928 with the understanding that ranges of icy mountains would be named after them; and Victor Hugo aspired to nothing less than the city of Paris renamed in his honour. Even Shakespeare, mightiest of the mighty, tried to add lustre to his name by procuring a coat of arms for his family.

‘I consider my ability to raise enthusiasm among my people,’ said Schwab, ‘the greatest asset I possess, and the way to develop the best that is in a person is by appreciation and encouragement.

‘There is nothing else that so kills the ambitions of a person as criticisms from superiors.’

When Alfred Lunt, one of the great actors of his time, played the leading role in Reunion in Vienna, he said, ‘There is nothing I need so much as nourishment for my self-esteem.’

In the long run flattery will do you more harm than good. Flattery is counterfeit, and like counterfeit money, it will eventually get you into trouble if you pass it to someone else.

The difference between appreciation and flattery? That is simple. One is sincere and the other is insincere.

King George V had a set of maxims displayed on the walls of his study at Buckingham Palace. One of these maxims said ‘Teach me neither to proffer nor receive cheap praise.’

When we are not engaged in thinking about some definite problem, we usually spend about 95 percent of our time thinking about ourselves. Now, if we stop thinking about ourselves for a while and begin to think of the other person’s good points, we don’t have to resort to flattery so cheap and false that it can be spotted almost before it is out of the mouth.

I often went fishing up in Maine during the summer. Personally I am very fond of strawberries and cream, but I have found that for some strange reason, fish prefer worms. So when I went fishing, I didn’t think about what I wanted. I didn’t bait the hook with strawberries and cream.

Why talk about what we want? That is childish. Absurd. Of course, you are interested in what you want. You are eternally interested in it. But no one else is. The rest of us are just like you: we are interested in what we want.

The world is full of people who are grabbing and self-seeking. So the rare individual who unselfishly tries to serve others has an enormous advantage. He has little competition.

You can make more friends in two months by becoming interested in other people than you can in two years by trying to get other people interested in you.

You must have a good time meeting people if you expect them to have a good time meeting you.

FUNDAMENTAL TECHNIQUES IN HANDLING PEOPLE

1. Don’t criticize, condemn or complain.

2. Give honest and sincere appreciation.

3. Arouse in the other person an eager want.

Act as if you are already happy, and that will tend to make you happy.

Your smile is a messenger of good will. Your smile brightens the lives of all those who see it. To someone who has seen a dozen people frown, scowl or turn their faces away, you smile is like the sun breaking through the clouds.

… nobody needs a smile so much as those who have none left to give.

The name sets the individual apart; it makes him or her unique among all others.

Jesus summed it up in one thought – probably the most important rule in the world: ‘Do unto others as you would have others do unto you.’

The unvarnished truth is that almost all the people you meet feel themselves superior to you in some way, and a sure way to their hearts is to let the realise in some subtle way that you realise their importance, and recognise it sincerely. Remember what Emerson said: ‘Every man I meet is superior in some way. In that, I learn of him.’

SIX WAYS TO MAKE PEOPLE LIKE YOU

1. Become genuinely interested in other people.

2. Smile

3. Remember that a person’s name is to that person the sweetest and most important sound in any language.

4. Be a good listener. Encourage other to talk about themselves.

5. Talk in terms of other people’s interests.

6. Make the other person feel important – and do it sincerely.

If you argue, rankle and contradict, you may achieve victory sometimes; but it will be an empty victory because you will never get your opponent’s good will.

Carl Rogers, the eminent psychologist, wrote in his book On Becoming a Person:

I have found it enormous value when I can permit myself to understand the other person. The way in which I have worded myself may seem strange to you. Is it necessary to permit oneself to understand another? I think it is. Our first reaction to most of the statements (which we hear from other people) is an evaluation or judgement, rather than an understanding of it. When someone expresses feeling, attitude, or belief, our tendency is almost immediately to feel ‘that’s right’, or ‘that’s stupid’, ‘that’s abnormal’, ‘that’s incorrect’, that’s not nice’. Very rarely do we permit ourselves to understand precisely what the meaning of the statement is to the other person.

‘I made it a rule’, said Franklin, ‘to forbear all direct contradiction to the sentiment of others, and all positive assertion of my own. I even forbade myself the use of every word or expression in the language that imported a fix’d opinion, such as ‘certainly’, ‘undoubtedly’, etc., and I adopted, instead of them, ‘I conceive’, or ‘I imagine’, a thing to be so and so, or ‘it so appears to me at present.’ When another asserted something that I thought an error, I deny’d myself the pleasure of contradicting him abruptly, and of showing immediately some absurdity in his proposition: and in answering I began by observing that in certain cases or circumstances his opinion would be right, but in the present case there appear’d or seem’d to me some difference, etc. I soon found the advantage of this change in my manner; the conversations I engag’d in went on more pleasantly. The modest way in which I popos’d my opinions procur’d them a readier reception and less contradiction; I had less mortification when I was found to be in the wrong, and I more easily prevail’d with others to give up their mistakes and join with me when I happened to be in the right.’

Elbert Hubbard would answer like this:

Come to think it over, I don’t entirely agree with it myself. Not everything I wrote yesterday appeals to me today. I am glad to learn what you think on the subject. The next time you are in the neighbourhood you must visit us and we’ll get this subject threshed out for all time. So here is a handclasp over the miles, and I am

Yours sincerely,

What could you say to a man who treated you like that?

When we are right, let’s try to win people gently and tactfully to our way of thinking, and when we are wrong – and that will be surprisingly often, if we are honest with ourselves let’s admit our mistakes quickly and with enthusiasm. Not only will that technique produce astonishing result; but, believe it or not, it is a lot more fun, under the circumstances, than trying to defend oneself.

I read a fable about the sun and the wind. They quarrelled about which was the stronger, and the wind said, ‘I’ll prove I am. See the old man down there with the coat? I bet I can get his coat off quicker than you can.’

So the sun went behind a cloud, and the wind blew until it was almost a tornado, but the harder it blew, the tighter the old man clutched his coat to him.

Finally, the wind calmed down and gave up, and then the sun came out from behind the clouds and smiled kindly on the old man. Presently, he mopped his brown and pulled off his coat. The sun told the wind that gentleness and friendliness were always stronger than fury and force.

WIN PEOPLE TO YOUR WAY OF THINKING

1. The only way to get the best out of an argument is to avoid it.

2. Show respect for the other person’s opinions. Never say, ‘You’re wrong’.

3. If you are wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.

4. Begin in a friendly way.

5. Get the other person saying ‘yes, yes’ immediately.

6. Let the other person do a great deal of the talking.

7. Let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers.

8. Try honestly to see things from the other person’s point of view.

9. Be sympathetic with the other person’s ideas and desires.

10. Appeal to the nobler motives.

11. Dramatise your ideas.

12. Throw down a challenge.

The legendary aviation pioneer and author Antoine de Saint-Exupery wrote: ‘I have no right to say or do anything that diminishes a man in his own eyes. What matter is not what I think of him, but what he thinks of himself. Hurting a man in his dignity is a crime.’

BE A LEADER

1. Begin with praise and honest appreciation.

2. Call attention to people’s mistakes indirectly.

3. Talk about your own mistakes before criticising the other person.

4. Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.

5. Let the other person save face.

6. Praise the slightest improvement and praise every improvement, Be ‘hearty in your approbation and lavish in your praise’.

7. Give the other person a fine reputation to live up to.

8. Use encouragement. Make the fault seem easy to correct.

9. Make the other person happy about doing the thing you suggest.

“Status Anxiety” – Alain de Botton

If our position on the ladder is such a matter of concern, it is because our self-conception is so dependent on what others make of us. Rare individuals aside (Socrates, Jesus), we rely on signs of respect from the world to feel tolerable to ourselves.

More regrettably still, status is hard to achieve and even harder to maintain over a lifetime. Except in societies where it is fixed at birth and our veins flow with noble blood, a high position hangs on what we can achieve…

We would, in an ideal world, be more impermeable. We would be unshaken whether we were ignored or noticed, praised or jeered at. … And if we had carried out a fair appraisal of ourselves and decided upon our value, another person’s judgement of our irrelevance would not wound us. We would know our worth. Instead, we appear to hold within ourselves a range of divergent views as to our characters. We have evidence of both cleverness and stupidity, humour and dullness, importance and superfluity. And in such wavering conditions, it typically falls to the attitude of society to settle the question of our significance.

Our mood may blacken because a colleague has greeted us absent-mindedly and our calls have been left unanswered. And we are capable of finding life worth living because someone has remembered our name and sent us a fruit basket.

Rousseau’s argument hung on a thesis about wealth: that wealth does not involve having many things. It involves having what we long for. Wealth is not an absolute. It is relative to desire. Every time we seek something we seek something we cannot afford, we grow poorer, whatever our resources. And every time we feel satisfied with what we have, we can be counted as rich, however little we may actually own.

There are two ways to make people richer, reasoned Rousseau, to give them more money or to restrain their desires. Modern societies have succeeded spectacularly at the first option but, by continuously inflaming appetites, they have at the same time helped to negate a share of their most impressive achievements.

The price we have paid for expecting to be so much more than our ancestors is a perpetual anxiety that we are far from being all that we might be.

The fear of failing tasks would perhaps not be so great were it not for an awareness of how often failure tends to be harshly viewed and interpreted by others.

PERCENTAGE OF NORTH AMERICANS DECLARING THE FOLLOWING ITEMS TO BE NECESSITIES

 

1970

2000

Second car

20%

59%

Second television

3%

45%

More than one telephone

2%

78%

Car air-conditioning

11%

65%

Home air-conditioning

22%

70%

Dishwasher

8%

44%

HOW WE IMAGINE SATISFACTION AFTER AN ACQUISITION / ACHIEVEMENT

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WHAT IN FACT HAPPENS AFTER AN ACQUISITION / ACHIEVEMENT

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We are tempted to believe that certain achievements and possessions will guarantee us an enduring satisfaction. We are led to imagine ourselves scaling the steep sides of the cliff face of happiness to reach a wide, high plateau on which to continue our lives; we are not reminded that soon after reaching the summit we will be called down again in to fresh lowlands of anxiety and desire.

… which is not to say that we should never strive to overcome anxieties or fulfil desires, but that we should perhaps build in to our strivings an awareness of the way our goals promise us levels of rest and resolution that they cannot, by definition, deliver.

Qualities and skills that would result in high status in one place have a marked tendency to grow irrelevant or be frowned upon in another …

Requirements of High Status in:

Sparta, Greek Peninsula, 400 BC

The most honoured members of ancient Spartan society were men and in particular fighting, aggressive men … little interest in family life, a distaste for business and luxury, and an enthusiasm for killing …

Western Europe, AD 476-1096

… the most revered became those who modelled themselves on the life and teachings of Jesus Christ.

Western Europe, AD 1096-1599

… it was the turn of knights to become the most admired people …

Western Europe, AD 1750-1890

… it was no longer judged necessary to know how to fight in order to be respectable. … The most admired people in society were ‘gentleman’. They were wealthy, they tended not to do very much apart from presiding over the management of their estates, they dabbled in industry or trade (especially with India and the West Indies), but they were keen to differentiate themselves from the inferior caste of merchants and industrialists. … It was important to take care of one’s hair and visit a barber regularly.

Brazil, 100-1960

Among the Cubeo tribe of the nort-west Amazon, individuals with the highest status were me who … were, first and foremost, skilled at killing jaguars.

London, New York, Los Angeles, Sydney, 2004

The category of the successful person comprises both men and women, of any race, who have been able to accumulate money, power and renown through their own activities (rather than through inheritance)… The presence of virtues – humility or godliness, for example – rarely detains attention. Like the Jaguar teeth for the Cubeo, a prosperous way of life signals worthiness.

… the greater part of our anxieties stems from an exaggerated sense of self-importance of our projects and concerns. We are tortured by our ideals, and by a punishingly high-minded sense of the gravity of what we are doing.

According to one influential wing of modern secular society, there are few more disreputable fates than to end up being ‘like everyone else’; for ‘everyone else’ is a category that comprises the mediocre and conformist, the boring and the suburban. The goal of all right-thinking people should be to mark themselves off from the crowd and ‘stand out’ in whatever way their talents allow.

‘Most of the luxuries, and many of the so-called comforts of life, are not only not indispensable, but positive hindrances to the elevation of mankind’, wrote Thereau, adding, in an attempt to upset his society’s connection between owning things and being honourable, ‘Man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can do without.’

The beginning of a mature solution to status anxiety might be said to begin with the recognition that status is available from a variety of different audiences: from industrialists and from bohemians, from families and from philosophers – and that our choice of audience can be free and willed.

Status anxiety is the price we pay for acknowledging a public difference between a successful and unsuccessful life.

http://www.mindhacks.com/blog/attention/index.html

Many lab animals, and many person-hours, were recruited to help understand exactly how rewards and punishments could be arranged to influence behaviour. One surprising finding is that if you want to train an animal to do something, consistently rewarding that behaviour isn't the best way. The most effective training regime is one where you give the animal a reward only sometimes, and then only at random intervals. Animals trained like this, with what's called a 'variable interval reinforcement schedule', work harder for their rewards, and take longer to give up once all rewards for the behaviour is removed. There's a logic to this. Although we might know that we've stopped rewarding the animal, it has got used to performing the behaviour and not getting the reward. Because 'next time' might always be the occasion that produces the reward, there's never definite evidence that rewards have stopped altogether.

Ugly, Thorny Things article in Wall Street Journal - Joseph Epstein (October 19, 2006; Page A18)

The most fertile ground for the formation of ideas, in other words, is one relatively barren of facts. As facts add up, ideas tend to go down. Facts, bloody damn facts, get in the way of conjecture, speculation, delightful mental footwork of all kinds. Facts, we say with a shrug, are facts.

Facts are ugly, thorny things. Ideas are velvety and suave, and bring comfort by suggesting that our understanding of -- and hence control over -- the world is on the rise. Ideas can be immensely seductive. What a beautiful idea it is, for example, to bring democracy to Araby! And then arise the obdurate facts of rancorous tribalism to destroy the seduction.

“Zen for Beginners” – Judith Blackstone & Zoran Josipovic

Zen is not something we can learn, or even become, because we are already it, we can only be it.

Zen masters speak a lot about ‘beginner’s mind’. In Zen we are trying to become beginners, to experience life without the interference of our whole accumulation of opinions and ideas.

For example, if we look at a tree, and we have beginner’s mind, we won’t have to get into a dialogue with ourselves about how its an oak tree, there’s a lot of them around here, once I fell out of a tree just like this one, maybe if I sell the oak dresser in my room I can go to Bermuda, and so on – we just see the tree.

And then, because all of our sense are free to focus together, without distraction, we become aware of all kinds of things we otherwise wouldn’t notice – we can even sense that the life in the tree is not so different from our own, and at that point, we are reaching a level of perception which the Zen masters call ‘intimacy’, or ‘no separation’’. Zen teaches that when we are most aware, there is no separation of feeling between subject and object. Like the space inside and outside of a vase, we experience space inside and outside of ourselves to be continuous.

Beginner’s mind is unified mind. It is being completely involved in whatever we are doing.

The Four Noble Truths:

1. Life is suffering

2. Suffering is caused by selfish cravings

3. Selfish craving can be overcome

4. The Eightfold Path to overcome selfish craving:

- Right understanding

- Right purpose

- Right speech

- Right conduct

- Right livelihood

- Right effort

- Right alertness

- Right concentration

Zen is very practical. It’s not a philosophy – in fact, most of it’s teaching is aimed at getting us to shift our focus from abstract understanding to a more thorough experience with our whole mind. This includes every level of sensation, intuition, and reason at one time.

Zen teachers are always trying to free their students from the trap of intellectual analysis and to deepen their actual living experience.

Sartori is not forcibly holding the mind still or inducing a trance-like state. It is super alertness. It is something like the brightest idea you can have without the idea.

Sartori is not a product of the intellect. That wisdom has always been there.

Dogen’s Universal Recommendation for Zazen: …You should pursuing words and letters and learn to withdraw and reflect on yourself. When you do so, your body and mind will naturally fall away, and your Buddha nature will appear.

Haikun’s comment on the koan: What is the true mediation? It is to make everything; coughing; swallowing, waving the arms, motion, stillness, words, action, the evil and the good, prosperity and shame, gain and loss, right and wrong, into one single koan.

Because Zen Buddhists believe that everything is constantly changing, they practice opening themselves up to the natural flow of life, instead of trying to hold onto the past or manipulate the future.

An accomplished Zen student is always master of the situation, completely free to respond in any way. At the same time, he or she is totally involved in whatever is happening.

Modern Roshi Philip Kapleau writes that there are two stages of this involvement, mindfulness and mindlessness. These are simply two different degrees of absorption. Mindfulness is a state wherein one is totally aware in any situation and so always able to respond appropriately. Yet one is aware of being aware. Mindlessness, on the other hand, or ‘no-mindedness’, as it has been called, is a condition of such complete absorption that there is no vestige of self-awareness.

Zen teaches us that we are each the Buddha. Since that is our real nature, there is nothing we have to do to become the Buddha (although there’s often a lot of stuff for us to stop doing).

The 4th Patriarch, Tao-hsin said: There is nothing lacking in you and you yourself are no different from the Buddha. There is no other way of achieving Buddhahood than letting your mind free to be itself.

…the Zen student is not trying to transcend, or to get away from nature. Our actual nature is the thing sought and realised by the enlightened person.

“Monkey – A Journey to the West” – retold by David Kherdian

‘Nothing in this world is difficult, but thinking makes it seem so. Where there is true will, there is always a way.’

‘It goes without saying that I am indebted to the Master’, Monkey said, ‘but it is also true that I have worked every day and night to perfect myself. There isn’t a single transformation that I have not mastered.’

‘The adept does not reveal himself.’

“A Brief History of Nearly Everything” – Bill Bryson

A molecule is simply two or more atoms working together in a more or less stable arrangement: add two atoms of hydrogen to one atom of oxygen and you have a molecule of water.

At sea level, at a temperature of 0 degrees Celcius, one cubic centimetre of air (that is, the space about the size of sugar cube) will contain about 45 billion billion molecules. And they are in every single cubic centimetre you see around you.

Above all, atoms are tiny – very tiny indeed. Half a million of them lined up shoulder to shoulder could hide behind a human hair. On such a scale an individual atom is essentially impossible to imagine, but we can of course try.

Neutrons and protons occupy the atom’s nucleus. The nucleus of an atom is tiny – only one-millionth of a billionth of the volume of the atom – but fantastically dense, since it contains virtually all the atoms mass. As Cropper has put it, if an atom were expanded to the size of a cathedral, the nucleus would be only about the size of a fly – but a fly that is many thousands of times heavier than the cathedral.

It is still a fairly astounding notion to consider that atoms are mostly empty space, and that the solidity we experience around us is mostly an illusion. When two objects come together in the real world – billiard balls are most often used for illustration – they don’t actually strike each other. ‘Rather,’ as Timothy Ferris explains, ‘the negatively charged fields of the two balls repel each other…[W]ere it not for their electrical charges they could, like galaxies, pass right through each other unscathed.’ When you sit in a chair, you are not actually sitting there, but levitating above it a a height of one angstrom (a hundred millionth of a centimetre), your electrons and the its electrons implacably opposed to any closer intimacy.

Perhaps the most arresting of quantum improbabilities is the idea, arising from Wolfgang Pauli’s Exclusion Principle of 1925, that certain parts of subatomic particles, even when separated by the most considerable distances, can instantly ‘know’ what the other is doing. Particles have a quality known as spin and, according to quantum theory, the moment you determine the spin of one particle, its sister particle, no matter how distant away, will immediately begin spinning in the opposite direction and at the same rate.

It is as if, in the word of the science writer Lawrence Joseph, you had two identical pool balls, one in Ohio and the other in Fiji, and that the instant you sent one spinning the other would immediately spin in a contrary direction at precisely the same speed. Remarkably, this phenomenon was proved in 1997 when physicists at the University of Geneva sent photons seven miles in opposite directions and demonstrated that interfering with one provoked an instantaneous response in the other.

(particle accelerators) can whip particles into such a state of liveliness that a single electron can do 47,000 laps around a 7-kilometre tunnel in under a second.

‘Strange as it may seem,’ wrote Richard Feynmann, ‘we understand the distribution of matter in the interior of the sun far better than we understand the interior of the earth.’

The distance from the surface of the Earth to the middle is about 6,370 kilometres, which isn’t very far.

One or two South African gold mines reach a depth of over 3 kilometres, but most mines on Earth go no more than about 400 metres beneath the surface. If the planet were an apple, we wouldn’t yet have broken through the skin.

The last supervolcano eruption on Earth was at Toba, in northern Sumatra, 74,000 years ago. …The event, it is thought, may have carried humans right to the brink of extinction, reducing the global population to no more than a few thousand individuals. That would mean that all modern humans arose from a very small population base, which would explain our lack of genetic diversity.

In 1978, an astrophysicist named Michael Hart made some calculations and concluded that Earth would have been uninhabitable had it been just 1 per cent further from or 5 per cent closer to the Sun. That’s not much, and in fact it wasn’t enough. The figures have since been refined and made a little more generous – 5 per cent nearer and 15 per cent further are though to be accurate assessments for our zone of habitability – but that is still a narrow belt.

A fluffy summer cumulus several hundred metres to a side may contain no more than 100-150 litres of water – ‘about enough to fill a bath tub’, as James Trefil has noted. You can get some since of the immateriality quality of clouds by strolling through fog – which is, after all, nothing more than a cloud that lacks the will to fly.

Only about 0.035 per cent of the Earth’s fresh water is floating around above us at any moment.

If you are in good health and averagely diligent about hygiene, you will have a herd of about one trillion bacteria grazing on your fleshy skin – about a hundred thousand of them on every square centimetre of skin.

Every human body consists of about ten quadrillion cells, but is host to about a hundred quadrillion bacterial cells. From a bacteria’s point of view, of course, we are a rather small part of them.

Indeed, according to Woese, if you totalled up all the biomass of the planet - every living thing, plants included – microbes would account for at least 80 per cent of all there is, perhaps more. The world belongs to the very small – and it has done for a very long time.

Perhaps an even more effective way of grasping our extreme recentness as part of this 4.5-billion-year-old picture is to stretch your arms to their fullest extent and imagine the width as the entire history of the Earth. On this scale, according to John McPhee in Basin and the Range, …’and in a single stroke with a medium-grained nail file you could eradicate human history.’

It’s a somewhat galling notion to reflect that every inch of your surface is deceased. If you are an average-sized adult you are lugging around over 2 kilograms of dead skin, of which several billion tiny fragments are sloughed off each day.

…almost every one of them (cells) holds two yards of densely compacted DNA, and you begin to appreciate just how much of this stuff you carry around with you. If all your DNA were woven into a single fine strand, there would be enough of it to stretch from the Earth to the Moon and back, not once or twice but again and again. Altogether, according to one calculation, you may have as much as 20 million kilometres of DNA bundled up inside of you.

A bolt of lightening travels at 435,000 kilometres an hour…

At any one moment 1,800 thunderstorms are in progress around the globe – some 40,000 a day.

“The Old Man and the Sea” – Ernest Hemingway

He always thought of the sea as la mar which is what people call her in Spanish when they love her. Sometimes those who love her say bad things of her but they are always said as if she were a woman. Some of the younger fishermen, those who used buoys as floats for their lines and motor-boats, bought when shark livers brought much money, spoke of her as el mar which is masculine. They spoke of her as a contestant or place or even an enemy. But the old man always thought of her as feminine and as something that gave or withheld great favours, and if she did wild or wicked things it was because she could not help them. The moon affects her as it does a woman, he thought.

He looked down into the water and watched the lines that went straight down into the dark of the water. He kept them straighter than anyone did, so that each level in the darkness of the stream there would be a bait waiting exactly where he wished it to be for any fish that swam there. Others let them drift with the current and sometimes they were at sixty fathoms when the fishermen thought they were at a hundred.

But, he thought, I keep them with precision. Only I have no luck any more. But who knows? Maybe today. Every day is a new day. It is better to be lucky. But I would rather be exact. Then when luck comes you are ready.

He could not talk to the fish anymore because the fish had been ruined too badly. Then something came into his head.

‘Half-fish’, he said. ‘Fish that you were. I am sorry that I went too far out. I ruined us both…’

And the great sea with its friends and its enemies. And bed, he thought. Bed is my friend. Just bed, he thought. Bed will be a great thing. It is easy when you are beaten, he thought. I never knew how easy it was. And what beat you, he thought.

‘Nothing’, he said aloud. ‘I went out too far.’

“The 48 Laws of Power” – Robert Greene

“Any man who tries to be good all the time is bound to come to ruin among the greater number who are not good.” – Niccolo Machiavelli.

Like Janus, the double-faced Roman deity and guardian of all gates and doorways, you must be able to look in both directions at once, the better to handle danger from wherever it comes. Such is the face that you must create for yourself – one face continuously looking to the future and the other to the past.

Patience will protect you from making moronic blunders. Like mastering your emotions – patience is a skill, it does not come naturally.

The grass will grow again.

…life is short, opportunities are few, and you only have so much energy to draw on.

“Pick up a bee from kindness and learn the limitations of kindness” – Sufi proverb

Keep friends for friendship, but work with the skilled and comptent.

Without enemies around us, we grow lazy. An enemy sharpens our wits, keeping us focussed and alert.

Always say less then necessary: When you are trying to impress people with words, the more you say, the more common you appear, and the less in control. Even if you are saying something banal, it will seem original if you make it vague, open-ended, and sphinx like. Powerful people impress and intimidate by saying less. The more you say, the more likely you are to say something foolish.

Your short answers and silences will put them on the defensive, and they will jump in, nervously filling the silence with all kinds of comments that reveal valuable information about them and their weaknesses.

Warhol rarely talked about his work; he let others do the interpreting. He claimed to have learned this technique from the master of enigma Marcel Duchamp, another twentieth century artist who realised early on that the less he said about his work, the more people talked about it.

…(we) judge people on their appearances, on what is most visible to the eyes – clothes, gestures, words, actions. In the social realm, appearances are the barometer of almost all our judgements, and you must never be misled in to believing otherwise. One false slip, one awkward or sudden change in your appearance, can prove disastrous.

As they say, your reputation inevitably precedes you, and if it inspires a lot of respect, a lot of your work is done for you before you arrive on the scene, or utter a single word.

In a world growing increasingly banal and familiar, what seems enigmatic instantly draws attention. Never make it clear what you are doing or what you are about to do. Do not show all your cards. An air of mystery heightens your presence…

People are enthralled by mystery; because it invites constant interpretation, they never tire of it. The mysterious cannot be grasped. And what cannot be seized and consumed creates power. (think of the fame of Mata Hari)

…the world has become so familiar and its inhabitants so predictable that what wraps itself in mystery will always draw the limelight to it and make us watch.

The mystery you create must seem a game, playful and unthreatening. Recognise when it goes too far, and pull back.

Never appear overly greedy for attention, then, for it signals insecurity and insecurity drives power away. Understand that there are times when it is not in your interest to be the center of attention. When in the presence of a king or queen, for instance, or the equivalent thereof, bow and retreat to the shadows; never compete

Learn to use the knowledge of the past and you will look like a genius, even when you are really just a borrower.

Writers who have delved into human nature, ancient masters of strategy, historians of human stupidity and folly, kings and queens who have learned the hard way how to handle the burdens of power – their knowledge is gathering dust, waiting for you to come and stand on their shoulders. Their wit can be your wit, their skill can be your skill, and they will never come around to tell people how unoriginal you really are. You can slog through life, making endless mistakes, wasting time and energy trying to do things from your own experience. Or you can use the armies of the past. As Bismark once said “Fools say that they learn by experience. I prefer to profit from others’ experience.”

“There is much to be known, life is short, and life is not life without knowledge. It is therefore an excellent device to acquire knowledge from everybody. Thus, by the sweat of another’s brow, you win the reputation of being an oracle.” – Baltasar Gracian.

The honeyed bear trap. The bear hunter does not chase his prey; a bear that knows it is hunted is nearly impossible to catch and is ferocious if cornered. Instead, the hunter lays traps baited with honey. He does not exhaust himself and risk his life in pursuit. He baits, then waits.

We all believe we are masters in the realm of opinions and reasoning. You must be careful, then: Learn to demonstrate the correctness of your ideas indirectly.

“Never argue. In society nothing must be discussed; give only results” – Bejamin Disraeli.

Infection: Avoid the unhappy and the unlucky. You can die from someone else’s misery – emotional states are as infectious as diseases. You may fee you are helping the drowning man but you are only precipitating your own disaster. The unfortunate sometimes draw misfortune upon themselves; they will also draw it on you. Associate with the happy and fortunate instead.

“Many things are said to be infectious. Sleepiness and yawning as well. In large-scale strategy, when the enemy is agitated and shows an inclination to rush, do not mind in the least. Make a show of complete calmness, and the enemy will be taken by this and will become relaxed. You infect their spirit. You can infect them with a carefree, drunk-like spirit, with boredom, or even with weakness.” – Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings.

…humans are extremely susceptible to moods, emotions, and even the ways of thinking of those with whom around they spend their time. The incurably unhappy and unstable have a particularly strong infecting powers because their characters and emotions are so intense. They often present themselves as victims, making it difficult, at first, to see their miseries are self-inflicted. Before you realise the real nature of their problems you have been infected by them.

Associate with the generous then, and they will infect you, opening up everything that is tight and restricted in you. If you are gloomy, gravitate to the cheerful. If you are prone to isolation, force yourself to befriend the gregarious. Never associate with those who share your defects. Only create associations with positive affinities. Make this a rule of life and you will benefit more than from all the therapy in the world.

People rarely act unless compelled to.

“Everything turns grey when I don’t have at least one mark on the horizon. Life then seems empty and depressing. I cannot understand honest men. They lead desperate lives, full of boredom.” – Count Victor Lustig.

“Most men are so thoroughly subjective that nothing really interests them but themselves. They always think of their own case as soon as ever any remark is made, and their whole attention is engrossed by the nearest chance reference to anything which affects them personally, be it never so remote.” – Arthur Schopenhauer.

A key step in the process is to understand the other person’s psychology. Is he vain? Is he concerned about his reputation or social standing? Does he have any enemies that you could help him vanquish? Is he simply motivated by money and power?

They may act friendly for a while but this is only because you have defeated them. They have no choice but to bide their time. The solution: Have no mercy. Crush your enemies totally…

Use absence to increase honour and respect. Too much circulation makes the price go down. The more you are seen and heard from, the more common you appear. If you are already established in a group, temporary withdrawal from it will make you more talked about, even more admired. You must learn when to leave. Create value through scarcity.

Once you die everything about you will seem different. You will be surrounded by an instant aura of respect. People will remember their criticisms of you, their arguments with you, and will be filled with regret and guilt. They are missing a presence that will never return. But you do not have to wait until you die: By completely withdrawing for a while, you create a kind of death before death. And when you come back, it will be as if you had come back from the dead – an air of resurrection will cling to you are people will be relieved at your return.

There always comes a moment when those in power overstay there welcome. We have grown tired of them, lost respect for them; we see them as no different from the rest of mankind, which is to say that we see them as rather worse, since we inevitably compare their current status in our eyes to their former one. There is an art in knowing when to retire. If it is done right, you regain the respect you had lost, and retain a part of your power.

You can never be to sure who you are dealing with. A man who is of little importance and means today can be a person of power tomorrow. We forget a lot in our lives, but we rarely forget an insult.

No one likes feeling stupider than the next person. The trick, then, is to make your victims feel smart – and not just smart, but smarter than you are. Once convinced of this, they will never suspect that you may have ulterior motives.

Concentrate on a single goal, a single task, and beat it in to submission.

“Prize intensity more than extensity. Perfection resides in quality, not quantity. Extent alone never rises above mediocrity, and it is the misfortune of men with wide general interests that while they would like to have their finger in every pie, they have one in none. Intensity gives eminence, and rises to the heroic in matters sublime.” – Baltasar Gracian.

Avoid ostentation. It is never prudent to prattle on about yourself or call to much attention to yourself. The more you talk about your deeds, the more suspicion you cause. You also stir up enough envy among your peers to induce treachery and backstabbing. Be careful, ever so careful, in trumpeting your own achievements, and always talk less about yourself than about other people. Modesty is generally preferable.

Practice nonchalance. Never seem to be working too hard. Your talent must appear to flow naturally, with an ease that makes people take you for a genius rather than a workaholic. Even when something demands a lot of sweat, make it look effortless – people prefer not to see your blood and toil, which is another form of ostentation. It is better for them to marvel at how gracefully you have achieved your accomplishment than to wonder why it took you so much work.

Alter your style and language according to the person you are dealing with. The pseudo-belief in equality – the idea that talking and acting the same way with everyone, no matter what their rank, makes you somehow a paragon of civilisation – is a terrible mistake. Those below you will take it as a form of condescension, which it is, and those above you will be offended, although they may not admit it. You must change your style and your way of speaking to suit each person. This is not lying, it is acting, and acting is an art… Learn the art. This is also true for the great variety of cultures found in the modern court: Never assume that your criteria of behaviour and judgement are universal. Not only is an inability to adapt to another culture the height of barbarism, it puts you at a disadvantage.

Be self-observant. The mirror is a miraculous invention; without it you would commit great sins against beauty and decorum. You also need a mirror for your actions. This can sometimes come from other people telling you what they see in you, but that is not the most trustworthy method. You must be the mirror, training your mind to try and see yourself as others see you. Are you trying too hard to please? Do you seem desperate for attention, giving the impression that you are on the decline? Be observant about yourself and you will avoid a mountain of blunders.

Never risk being caught in your manoeuvres; never let people see your devices. If that happens you instantly pass in people’s perceptions from a courtier of great manners to a loathsome rogue. It is a delicate game you play; apply the utmost attention to covering your tracks and never let your master unmask you.

Re-create yourself. Do not accept the roles that society foists on you. Re-create yourself by forging a new identity, one that commands attention and never bores the audience. Be the master of your own image rather than letting others define it for you. Incorporate dramatic devices into your public gestures – your power will be enhanced and you will seem larger than life.

Enter action with boldness. If you are unsure of a course of action, do not attempt it. Your doubts and hesitations will infect your execution. Timidity is dangerous. Better to enter with boldness. Everyone admires the bold; no one honours the timid.

Lions circle the hesitant prey. People have a sixth sense for the weakness of others. If, in a first encounter, you demonstrate your willingness to compromise, back down, and retreat, you bring out the lion even in people who are not necessarily bloodthirsty. Everything depends on perception, and once you are seen as the kind of person who quickly goes on the defensive, who is willing to negotiate and be amenable, you will be pushed around without mercy.

Audacity separates you from the herd. Boldness gives you presence and makes you seem larger than life. The timid fade in to the wallpaper, the bold draw attention and what draws attention draws power. We cannot keep our eyes of the audacious – we cannot wait to see their next bold move.

Understand: If boldness is not natural, neither is timidity. It is an acquired habit, picked up out of a desire to avoid conflict. If timidity has taken hold of you, then, root it out. Your fears of the consequences of bold action are way out of proportion to reality, and in fact, the consequences fo timidity are worse. Your value is lowered and you create a self-fulfilling cycle of doubt and disaster.

Most men are ruled by the heart, not the head. Their plans are vague, and when they meet obstacles they improvise. But improvisation will only bring you as far as the next crisis, and is never a substitute for thinking several steps ahead and planning to the end.

The person that goes too far in his triumphs creates a reaction that inevitably leads to a decline. The only solution is to plan for the long run.

Plan in detail before you act – do not let vague plans lead you into trouble. Will this have unintended consequences? Will I stir up new enemies? Will someone else take advantage of my labours? Unhappy endings are much more common than happy endings – do not be swayed by the happy ending in your mind.

People’s need for validation and recognition, their need to feel important, is the best kind of weakness to exploit. First, it is almost universal; second, exploiting it is so very easy. All you have to do is find ways to make people feel better about their taste, their social standing, their intelligence. Once the fish are hooked, you can reel them in again and again, for years – you are filling a positive role, giving what they cannot get on their own. They may never suspect that you are turning them like a thumb-screw. And if they do they may not care, because you are making them feel better than themselves, and that it worth any price.

Timid souls often yearn to be their opposite – to be Napoleons. Yet they lack the inner strength. You, inessence, can become their Napoelon, pushing them in to bold actions that serve your needs while making them dependent on you. Remember: Look to the opposites and never take appearances at face value.

Be royal in your own fashion: act like a king to be treated like one. The way you carry yourself will often determine how you are treated: In the long run, appearing vulgar or common will make people disrespect you. For a king respects himself and inspires the same sentiment in others. By acting regally and confident of your powers, you make yourself seem destined to wear a crown.

“Never lose your self-respect, nor be too familiar with yourself when you are alone. Let your integrity be your own standard of rectitude, and be more indebted to the severity of your own judgement of yourself than to all external precepts. Desist from unseemly conduct, rather out of respect for your own virtue than for the strictures of external authority. Come to hold yourself in awe.” – Bathasar Gracian (1601 – 1658).

The Strategy of the Crown is based on a simple chain of cause and effect: If we believe we are destined for great things, our belief will radiate outward, just as a crown creates an aura around a king. This outward radiation will infect the people around, who will think we must have reasons to feel so confident. People who wear crowns seem to feel no inner sense of the limits to what they can ask for or what they can accomplish. This too radiates outward. Limits and boundaries disappear. Use the Strategy of the Crown and you will be surprised how often it bears fruit.

The Crown. Place it upon your head and you assume a different pose – tranquil yet radiating assurance. Never show doubt, never lose your dignity beneath your crown, or it will not fit. It will seem to be destined for someone more worthy. Do not wait for a coronation; the greatest emperors crown themselves.

“Everybody should be royal after his own fashion. Let all you actions, even though they are not those of a king, be, in their own sphere, worthy of one. Be sublime in your deeds, lofty in your thoughts; and in all your doings show that you deserve to be a king even though you are not one in reality.” – Baltasar Gracian.

The idea behind the assumption of regal confidence is to set yourself apart from other people, but if you take this too far it will be your undoing.

Never seem to be in a hurry – hurrying betrays a lack of control over yourself, and over time. Always seem patient, as if you know that everything will come to you eventually. Become a detective of the right moment; sniff out the spirit of the times, the trends that will carry you to power. Learn to stand back when the time is not yet ripe, and to strike fiercely when it has reached fruition.

“…it is a topsy-turvy way of behaving to take to heart cares which you ought to thrown over your shoulder. Many things which seemed important [at the time] turn out to be of no account when they are ignored; and others, which seem trifling, appear formidable when you pay attention to them.” – Baltasar Gracian.

If there is something that you want but you realise you cannot have, the worst thing you can do is draw attention to your disappointment by complaining about it.

“There is no kind of revenge like oblivion, for it is the entombment of the unworthy in the dust of their own nothingness.” - Baltasar Gracian.

Always find a symbol to represent your cause – the more emotional associations, the better.

“It is also well to avoid correcting people’s mistakes in conversation, however good your intentions may be; for it is easy to offend people and difficult, if not impossible, to mend them. If you feel irritated by the absurd remarks of two people whose conversation you should overhear, you should imagine that you are listening to a dialogue of two fools in comedy” - Baltasar Gracian.

“If possible, no animosity should be felt for anyone…To speak angrily to a person, to show you hatred by what you say or by the way you look, is an unnecessary proceeding –dangerous, foolish, ridiculous, and vulgar. Anger or hatred should never be shown otherwise than in what you do; and feelings will be all the more effective in action, in so far as you avoid the exhibition of them in any other way.” – Arthur Schopenhauer.

In the face of a hot-headed enemy, finally, an excellent response is no response. Follow the Talleyrand tactic: nothing is as infuriating as a man who keeps his cool while others are losing theirs.

Find the gap in their strength If there is no gap – if they are impossible strong – you have nothing to gain and everything to lose by provoking them. Choose carefully whom you bait, and never stir up the sharks.

In the realm of power, everything must be judged by its cost, and everything has a price. What is offered for free or at bargain rates often comes with a psychological price tag – complicated feelings of obligation, compromises with quality, the insecurities those compromises bring, and on and on.

“There is a popular saying in Japan that goes: ‘Tada yori takai mono wa nai’. ‘Nothing is more costly than something that is given free of charge.’” – Michihiro Matsumoto, The Unspoken Way.

This was the point of his gift giving, a ladder that carried him to the highest social levels. By the end of his life he (Aretino) had become the most famous writer in Europe. Understand: Money may determine power relationship, but thise relationships need not depend on the amount of money you have; they also depend on the way you use it. Powerful people give freely, buying influence rather than things.

With the leader gone, the center of gravity is gone; there is nothing to revolve around and everything falls apart. Aim at the leaders, bring them down, and look for the endless opportunities in the confusion that will ensue.

“Any harm you do to a man should be done is such a way that you need not fear his revenge”, writes Machiavelli. If you act to isolate an enemy make sure he lacks the means to repay the favour.

At all times you must attend to those around you, gauging their particular psychology, tailoring your words to what you know will entice and seduce them. This requires energy and art. The higher your station, the greater the need to remain attuned to the hearts and minds of those below you, creating a base of support to maintain you at the pinnacle. Without your base, your power will teeter, and at the slightest change of fortune those below you will gladly assist in your fall from grace

Never clumsily assume that the tactic that worked on one person will necessarily work on another. To find the key that will motivate them, first get them to open up. The more they talk, the more they reveal about their likes and dislikes – the handles and levers to move them with.

Everyone understands the need for change in the abstract, but on the day-to-day level people are creatures of habit. Too much innovation is traumatic, and will lead to revolt. If you are new to a position of power, or an outsider trying to build a power base, make a show of respecting the old way of doing things. If change is necessary, make it feel like a gentle improvement on the past.

“He who desires or attempts to reform the government of a state, and wishes to have it accepted, must at least retain the semblance of the old forms; so that it may seem to the people that there has been no change in the institutions, even though in fact they are entirely different from the old ones. For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were with realities.” – Niccolo Machiavelli.

Never appear too perfect. Appearing better than other is always dangerous, but most dangerous of all is to appear to have no faults or weaknesses. Envy creates silent enemies. It is smart to occasionally display defects, and admit to harmless vices, in order to deflect envy and appear more human and approachable.

The insidious envy can be deflected quite easily: Appear as one of them in style of values. Make alliances with those below you, and elevate them to positions of power and secure their support in times of need. Never flaunt your wealth, and carefully conceal the degree to which it has bought influence. Make a display of deferring to others, as if they were more powerful than you.

The human animal has a hard time dealing with feelings of inferiority. In the face of superior skill, talent, or power, we are often disturbed and ill at ease; this is because most of us have an inflated sense of ourselves, and when we meet people who surpass us they make it clear to us that we are in fact mediocre, or at least not as brilliant as we had thought. This disturbance in our self-image cannot last long without stirring up ugly emotions.

“Of all the disorders of the soul, envy is the only one no one confesses to.” – Plutarch (AD 46 – 120)

Understanding the foolishness of alienating those around him (Archbishop) de Retz did everything he could to downplay his merit and emphasise the role of luck in his success. To put people at ease, he acted humbly and deferentially, as if nothing had changed. (In reality, of course, he now had much more power than before). He wrote that these wise policies “produced a good effect, by lessening the envy which was conceived against me, which is the greatest of all secrets.” Follow de Retz’s example. Subtly emphasise how lucky you have been, to make your happiness seem attainable to other people and the need for envy less acute. But be careful not to affect a false modesty that people can easily see through. This will only make people more envious.

People cannot envy the power that they themselves have given a person who does not seem to desire it.

As Thoreau once said “Envy is the tax which all distinction must pay.”

Do not go past the mark you aimed for; in victory learn when to stop. The moment of victory is often the moment of greatest peril. In the heat of victory, arrogance and overconfidence can push you past the goal you had aimed for, and by going too far, you make more enemies that you defeat. Do not allow success to go to your head. There is no substitute for strategy and careful planning. Set a goal, and when your reach it, stop.

Understand: In the realm of power, you must be guided by reason. To let a momentary thrill of emotional victory influence of guide your moves will prove fatal. When you attain success, step back. Be cautious. When you gain victory, understand the part played by the particular circumstances of a situation, and never simply repeat the same actions again. History is littered with the ruins of victorious empires and the corpses of leaders who could not learn to stop and consolidate their gains.

“The greatest danger occurs at the time of victory” – Napoleon Bonaparte.

“Princes and republics should content themselves with victory, for when they aim at more, they generally lose. … when this false hope takes possession of the mind, it makes men go beyond the mark, and causes them to sacrifice a certain good for an uncertain better.” – Niccolo Machiavelli.

The need for formlessness becomes greater the older we get, as we grow more likely to become set in our ways and assume a rigid form.

…the granting of a favour is never simple; If it is done with fuss and obviousness, its receiver feels burdened by an obligation. This may give the doer a certain power, but it is a power that will eventually self-destruct, for it will stir up resentment and resistance. A favour done indirectly and elegantly has ten times more power.

“Anyone Can Do It – Building Coffee Republic From Our Kitchen Table” – Sahar and Bobby Hashemi

Ask yourself this question: why aren’t you pursuing your dream now?

Peter Drucker notes that “anyone who can face up to decision making can learn to be an entrepreneur and behave entrepreneurially. Entrepreneurship is a behaviour rather than a personality trait.

You can’t be a half hearted entrepreneur.

Don’t bother if you’re just in it for the cash.

An idea not acted upon is worthless.

Follow the Zulu Principle –Coined by the 1970’s guru Jim Slater, this rule …asserts that anyone can become an expert about anything if they focus on it completely.

Do the best business plan you can, but save your real energy for rolling up your sleeves and actually doing it.

“Think Yourself Rich” – Sharon Maxwell Magnus

If you don’t believe in yourself, why should anyone else.

It is vital not only that you believe that you can be richer and more successful, but that you actually have enough self-confidence to do what it takes.

Divide your ambitions in to increments…take the first steps towards my goal…what can you do within a fortnight? A month? A year? Motivation of course, is a key factor. So each goal should have an in-built reward for reaching it.

However, the millionaires were selfish in one sense. They had their goals, priorities, vision, and none of them allowed themselves to be blown off course by others priorities, others expectations of them or the wish to kowtow to others demands. In other words, they were self-motivated by praise, or the need to be loved. They pursued their own objectives…

Trying to please everyone is after all, a recipe foe pleasing no one, especially yourself.

If you focus, set goals and work hard, its amazing how much luckier you can become!

This is because for highly successful people, work is not about time, its about results. They also really, really enjoy it. There is nothing they like more than talking about their company, career, or business, thinking about it and doing what it takes to create success. Indeed, when it comes to the reasons for their success, millionaires put hard work second only to being trustworthy, with enjoying work a close third. Taking opportunities and having intelligence, while important, are seen as less critical.

They believe that not only can they succeed, but they will succeed, and are willing to put in the effort to do so. They are not worriers or fretters.

Facing up to failure - …indeed, several interviewed said that they only regarded something as a failure if they made the same mistake twice.

John Madjedksi, then serial entrepreneur and founder of Autotrader: “We are born with nothing and we leave with nothing. I also find it fascinating that once you can afford anything you desire, you find that you don’t want anything.”

1. If you want to be a multimillionaire, be an entrepreneur. Owning your own business is where the really big money really is.

2. Believe you can do it and you are halfway there.

3. You need to want it body and soul – and be prepared to put the effort in – especially in the early days.

4. Set goals for yourself in your career and personal life. Pick your priorities and stick with them.

5. Drive and ambition are vital.

6. Expect to fail at least once – learn from your mistakes and let them go.

7. Don’t play it by the book: learn to think laterally, do it differently.

8. Take a chance – risk taking is vital to success.

9. Don’t let others pull you down.

10. Love what you do and you’ll want to do more of it and will make more money from it.

“The Family” – Mario Puzo

In Cesare’s mind, to take from a man his possessions, his riches, even his life, was a far lesser crime than to rob him of his free will. For without that, he is a mere puppet of his own need, a beast of burden yielding to the snap of another man’s whip. And he swore he would not be that beast.

“Socrates” – Anthony Gottlieb

“At any rate it seems that I am wiser than he is to this small extent, that I do not think I know what I do not know.”

The final goal, which perhaps would never be reached, was to achieve a sort of expert knowledge like the expert knowledge of skilled craftsmen, though not about shoemaking or metalwork but about the ultimate craft of living well.

“The Right to Write” – Julia Cameron

We should write because writing brings clarity and passion to the act of living.

…most of us write too carefully. We try to do it “right”. We try to sound smart. We try, period. Writing goes much better when we don’t work at it so much. When we give ourselves permission to just hang out on the page. For me, writing is like a good pair of pyjamas – comfortable.

What of writing were simply about the act of writing? If we didn’t have to worry about being published and being judged, how many more of us might write a novel just for the joy of making one? Why should we think of writing a novel as something we shouldn’t try – the way an amateur carpenter might build a bookcase or even a picnic table? What if we didn’t have to be good at writing ? What if we got to do it for sheer fun?

Where do we get the idea that putting words on a page is so dangerous?

The Time Lie – “If I had a year off, I’d write a novel” Maybe you would, maybe you wouldn’t.

The myth that we must have “time” – more time – in order to create is a myth that keeps us from suing the time we do have.

Lawyer Scot Turrow wrote his riveting novel Presumed Innocent on his daily commuter train.

“I think dashing off things is a good thing”, I answer. “We can dash off an awful lot of valid work relatively painlessly.”

The trick to finding time to write is to write from love and not with an eye to product.

Early in my writing life, I tried to polish as I went. Each sentence, each paragraph, each page, had to flow from and build on what went before. I thought a lot about all of this. I really worked at it. I toiled at being a writer. This meant long, stubborn hours writing and re-writing, crossing out and then adding back in again. Writing this way was frustrating, difficult, and disheartening, like trying to write a movie and cut it at the same time.

Writing is what we make from the broth of experience. If we lead a rich and varied life, we will have a rich and varied stock of ingredients from which to draw.

“How to Think Like Leonardo Da Vinci” – Michael J.Gelb

Throughout his life he proudly referred to himself as uomo senza lettere (“man without letters”) and discepolo della esperienza (“disciple of experience”).

Leonardo championed originality and independence of thought. He urged, “No one should imitate the manner of another, for he would then deserve to be called a grandson of nature, not her son.”

He viewed the work of others as “experience by proxy” to be studied carefully and critically and to be tested through his own experience.

…Leonardo reflected sadly that the average human “looks without seeing, listens without hearing, touches without feeling, eats without tasting, moves without physical awareness, inhales without awareness of odour or fragrance, and talks without thinking.”

“How Proust Can Change Your Life” – Alain De Botton

I think that life would suddenly seem wonderful to us if we were threatened to die as you say. Just think of how many projects, travels, love affairs, studies etc – our life – hides from us, made invisible by our laziness, which, certain of a future, delays them incessantly.

But let all this threaten to become impossible for ever, how beautiful it would become again! Ah! If only the cataclysm doesn’t happen this time, we won’t miss visiting the new galleries of the Louvre, throwing ourselves as the feet of Miss X, making a trip to India.

The cataclysm doesn’t happen, we don’t do any of it, because we find ourselves back in the heart of normal life, where negligence deadens desire. And yet we shouldn’t have needed the cataclysm to love life today. It would have been enough to think that we are humans, and that death may come this evening.

The value of a novel is not limited to its depiction of emotions and people akin to those in our own life, it stretches to an ability to describe these far better than we would have been able, to put a finger on perceptions that we recognise as our own, yet could not have formulated on our own.

…Proust’s assertion that the greatness of works of art has nothing to do with the apparent quality of their subject matter, and everything to do with the subsequent treatment of that matter. And hence his associated claims that everything is potentially a fertile subject for art and that we can make discoveries as valuable in an advertisement for soap as we can in Pascal’s Pensees.

We cannot be taught wisdom, we have to discover it by ourselves by a journey which no one can undertake for us, an effort which no one can spare us.

Perhaps the greatest claim one can therefore make for suffering is that opens up possibilities for intelligent, imaginative enquiry – possibilities which may quite easily be, and most often are, overlooked or refused.

Griefs, at the moment when they change into ideas, lose some of their power to injure our heart.

Pyschoanalytic literature tells of a woman who felt faint whenever she sat in a library. Surrounded by books, she would develop nausea and could gain relief only by leaving their vicinity. It was not, as might be supposed, that she was averse to books, but rather that she wanted them and the knowledge they contained far too strongly, wanted to have read everything on the shelves at once – and because she could not, needed to flee her unbearable ignorance by surrounding herself with a less knowledge-laden environment.

A precondition to becoming knowledgeable may be a resignation to, and accommodation with, the extent of one’s ignorance, an accommodation which requires a sense that this ignorance need not be permanent, or indeed need not be taken personally, as a reflection of one’s inherent capacities.

Why would one be unable to chat, as opposed to write at the level of In Search of Lost Time? In part, because of the mind’s condition as an intermittent organ, forever liable to lose the thread or be distracted, generating vital thoughts only between searches of mediocrity of, stretches in which we are not really “ourselves”, during which it may be no exaggeration to say that we are not quite all there as we gaze at passing clouds with a vacant, childlike expression. Because the rhythm of a conversation makes no allowance for dead periods, because the presence of others calls for continuous responses, we are left to regret the inanity of what we say, and the missed opportunity of what we do not.

Furthermore, conversation allows us little room to revise our original utterances, which ill suits our tendency not to know what we are trying to say until we have had at least one go at trying to say it; whereas writing accommodates and is largely made up of rewriting, during which original thoughts – bare inarticulate strands – are enriched and nuanced over time.

Given the effort and strategic intelligence he devoted to friendship, it shouldn’t surprise us. For instance, it is often assumed, usually by people who don’t have many friends, that friendship is a hallowed sphere where what we wish to talk about effortlessly coincides with others’ interests. Proust, less optimistic than this, recognised the likelihood of discrepancy, and concluded that he should always be the one to ask questions, and address himself to what was on your mind rather than risk boring you with what was on his.

The images of glamour simply did not match the realities of aristocratic life. He recognised that he was better off staying at home, that he could be as happy talking to his maid as to the Princesse Caraman-Chimay.

…Chardin had shown him that the kind of environment in which he could lived could, for a fraction of the cost, have many of the charms he had previously associated with palaces and the princely life. No longer would he feel painfully excluded from an aesthetic realm, no loner would he be so envious of smart bankers with gold-plated coal tongs and diamond-studded door handles. He would learn that metal and earthenware could also be enchanting, and common crockery as beautiful as precious stones. After looking at Chardin’s work, even the humblest rooms in his parents’ flat would have the power to delight him, Proust promised: “When you walk around a kitchen, you will say to yourself, this is interesting, this is grand, that is beautiful, like a Chardin.”

I have tried to show how the great painters initiate us into a knowledge and love of the external world, how they are the ones ‘by who our eyes are opened’, opened, that is, on the world.

Though we usually assume that seeing an object requires us to have visual contact with it, and that seeing a mountain involves visiting the Alps and opening our eyes, this may only be the first, and in a sense the inferior, part of seeing, for appreciating an object properly may also require us to recreate it in our mind’s eye.

…It emphasises the extent to which physical possession is only one component of appreciation. If the rich are fortunate in being able to travel to Dresden as soon as the desire to do so arises, or buy a dress just after they have seen it in catalogue, they are cursed because of the speed with which their wealth fulfils their desires.

..When we feel interest to be so dependent on the exact locations where certain great artists found it, a thousand landscapes and areas of experience will be deprived of possible interest, for Monet only looked at a few stretches of the earth, and Proust’s novel though long, could not comprise more than a fraction of human experience. Rather than learn the general lesson of art’s attentiveness, we might seek instead the mere objects of its gaze, and would then be able to do justice to the parts of the world which artists had not considered.

To make [reading] into a discipline is to give too large a role to what is only an incitement. Reading is on the threshold of the spiritual life; it can introduce us to it: it does not constitute it.

Even the finest books deserve to be thrown aside.

“The Fortune Sellers” - William A.Sherden

…believers mistake chance events for feats of amazing forecast accuracy and find – or look for – validation of their existing beliefs.

The desire to know the future is a deep psychic need.

A look at the prediction industry would not be complete without the news media, which flood us every day with forecasts of all types. Daily newspapers contain predictions about the weather, economy, stock market, politics, society, science, and geopolitical trends and events. Many routinely include horoscopes. Much of the editorial page is speculation.

No doubt you could name an expert or two who predicted some big, surprising event. But…did they really? It is very hard to distinguish a long-shot direct hit from pure chance. The laws of probability dictate that if thousands of forecasts make thousands of predictions, someone at some time is bound to make a spectacular direct hit. Typically, these lucky few enjoy their fifteen minutes of fame before sinking back into the ranks of mediocrity as they revert to meting out egregiously wrong forecasts.

How can the experts get it so wrong? The prediction industry attracts some of the best and brightest minds, in addition to enlisting the latest technology. The answer is that the experts are trying to do the impossible.

Peter Drucker wrote in his seminal business book, Management, “Forecasting is not a respectable human activity and not worthwhile beyond the shortest of periods.”

Although chaos and complexity theories alone are sufficient to doom prediction, there are other barriers that obscure our view of the future, such as “situational bias”: the phenomenon by which our thinking is so obscured by present conditions and trends that we cannot begin to see the future.”

If they are so smart why aren’t they incredibly rich?

…Instead they make their money selling advice to others on how they should spend their money. Although the experts do not get rich quickly, they are in a much safer business because their clients take all the risk.

We are continuously inundated with doom and gloom predictions because sensationalism sells.

Non-liner relationships greatly amplify mistakes

This is precisely how and why weather forecasts quickly degrade over time.

In the longer term small initial errors snowball.

Lorenz understood this inherent limit and was the first to proclaim that there must be some point in time beyond which weather forecasting is theoretically impossible. Recently, the American Meteorological Society has officially proclaimed that this limit is somewhere between ten and fourteen days. However, it may be economically impossible to achieve this goal.

I found that the Almanac had a 48.99 percent success rate in prediction whether average monthly temperatures were above or below seasonal norms, which is essentially the same fifty-fifty odds of flipping a coin.

It is not at all surprising that all three major long-range weather forecasting almanacs claims accuracy in the 80-85 percent range, given that just using historical seasonal norms as a naïve forecast requiring no skill yields a 90 percent accuracy rate. Any forecaster of long-range weather would be crazy not to rely mostly on historical seasonal norms.

Question: Why did God create economists? Answer: To make weather forecasters look good.

Economics, like meteorology, is heavily involved in forecasting. Among all the science, hard and soft, these two fields are by far the most heavily involved in making predictions for broad public consumption. Nearly every day the media shower us with an economist’s predictions. How often do physicists and chemists make predictions about the future? Hardly ever.

…First Law of Economics: For every economist, there is an equal and opposite economist.

Economists cannot predict turning points in the economy.

Economist forecasts accuracy drops with lead time. Victor Zarnowitz has noted that “the predictive value of detailed forecasts reaching out further than a few quarters ahead must be rather heavily discounted.”

It turns out that most economic forecasts are about as accurate as guessing that next year will be the same as this year – an example of a naïve forecast.

Increased sophistication provides no improvement in economic forecast accuracy. Forecasters using computer models do no better than those relying only on their subjective judgement, and those using large models with over a thousand equations do no better than those using simpler models with only a few…

Commenting on the lack of progress in forecasts accuracy, Paul Samuelson (a Nobel laureate, MIT professor, and father of Economic 101) observed, “I don’t believe we’re converging on ever-improving forecast accuracy. It’s almost as if there’s a Heisenberg …[Uncertainty] Principle.” After many years as a prominent economic forecaster, Michael Evans, founder of Chase Economics, confessed, “The problem with macro [economic] forecasting is that no one can do it.”

Alfred Marshall, an English economist and John Maynard Keynes’s teacher, noted in his 1890 book, Principles of Economics, that economic phenomena “do not lend themselves easily to mathematical expression.”

Complex systems cannot be dissected into their component parts, because the systems themselves arise from the numerous interactions among the parts.

Complex systems are so highly interconnected with numerous positive and negative feed back loops that they often have counter-intuitive cause-and-effect results.

Me: Relationships may have a logic but they may not hold i.e. Phillip’s Curve.

Contrary to traditional economic thought, external shocks are not the major cause of the economy’s calamitous behaviour; it happens all by itself, for the economy is sufficiently unstable to create its own turmoil. The 1987 stock market crash is a good example. It was not caused by any external shock or calamitous sequence of events; it just happened due to the complex nature of the system and the interplay of events that are beyond our current comprehension. The crash came unannounced, and the market soon rebounded, reaching record highs.

A second negative impact of economic forecasts is that they result in faulty decision making by policy makers, business executives, and we as individuals, based on erroneous information. The Economist was right to declare that economic forecaster “are worse than useless: they can do actual long-term damage to the economy.”

How to succeed as an economic forecaster: forecast often and don’t keep records.

…Japan’s Nikkei exchange, which in 1990 lost 91 percent of its value in nine months. Japan’s commercial empire did not lose 91 percent of its earnings power.

Behavioural finance hypothesis include some of the following obviously commonsense notions: “disposition theory” (investors are reluctant to sell shares when they go below their original purchase prices),”barn-door closing” (investors will stick with a current trend even when it is changing – i.e., situational bias), and “anchoring” (investors are reluctant to change their opinions once they have made up their minds). Behavioural finance theorists appear to share some common ground with market technicians, who believe that the stock market is heavily driven by mass psychology.

Speculation and panic are nonlinear forces with positive feedback loops.

As Warren Weaver, author of the book Lady Luck, observed, “The best way to lose your shirt is to think that you have discovered a pattern in a game of chance.”

It took 200,000 years to increase human life expectancy from twenty-five to forty-seven years, and in the last one hundred years, life expectancy dramatically increased from forty-seven to seventy-seven years (in developed countries).

Nathan Keyfitz has concluded from his extensive reviews of US population forecasts that “short-term forecasts, say upto ten or 20 years, do tell us something, but beyond a quarter-century or so we simply do not know what the population will be.”

World population growth is almost entirely a phenomenon of the developing world… Between 1990 and 1995, 88 percent of the people added to the world were in Africa or Asia. Some developed countries already have birth rates that are at or below replacement levels.

The only certainty is that we are destined to live in an unpredictable world filled with endless uncertainty.

Paradoxically our life’s are more influencable than predictable. Although one can never really know how one’s life will evolve, it is surely possible to influence the evolution of one’s life to achieve certain aims. If there is something to be gained by heeding the message “What shall be, shall be,” it is that we should not take ourselves so seriously in the light of the fact that our futures will be filled with uncertainty and, in large part, shaped by chance events and luck. In spite of that, we can chose to lead lives that flexibly adapt to unforeseen changes and ambitious and motivated individuals can influence their futures by striving to make things happen.